University Clinical Aptitude Test (UCAT) Decision Making Flashcards

24 sample cards from the Decision Making deck

Sampled from the end of the deck, so these are different cards from the ones shown on the syllabus page.

1. Define probability and give its formula for equally likely outcomes.

   Probability is the likelihood of an event, ranging from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain). For equally likely outcomes: $$P(\text{event}) = \frac{\text{number of favourable outcomes}}{\text{total number of outcomes}}$$

2. What is the range of any probability value, and what do the extremes mean?

   Every probability satisfies $0 \leq P \leq 1$ (or equivalently 0% to 100%). $P = 0$ means impossible and $P = 1$ means certain.

3. State the complement rule for probability.

   The probability that an event does not happen is one minus the probability it does: $$P(\text{not } A) = 1 - P(A)$$

4. State the AND rule (multiplication) for two independent events.

   For independent events A and B, the probability both occur is the product: $$P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B)$$

5. State the OR rule (addition) for two mutually exclusive events.

   For mutually exclusive events (cannot both happen), the probability either occurs is the sum: $$P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) + P(B)$$

6. What is the general addition rule for two events that may overlap?

   $$P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \text{ and } B)$$ The intersection is subtracted to avoid double-counting.

7. Define mutually exclusive events versus independent events.

   Mutually exclusive: events that cannot occur at the same time, so $P(A \text{ and } B) = 0$. Independent: the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the other, so $P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A)\times P(B)$.

8. How do you find the expected number of occurrences over $n$ trials given a probability $p$?

   Expected occurrences $= n \times p$. For example, rolling a fair die $60$ times, the expected number of sixes is $60 \times \frac{1}{6} = 10$.

9. What is the probability of rolling two sixes in a row with a fair six-sided die?

   The rolls are independent, so $$P = \frac{1}{6} \times \frac{1}{6} = \frac{1}{36}$$

10. What does 'recognising probabilistic reasoning' require you to judge about an argument's use of chance?

    Whether a conclusion drawn from probabilities is justified—e.g. checking that 'more likely' is not treated as 'certain', that independence is correctly assumed, and that the stated odds genuinely support the claim.

11. Why is the statement 'the event is likely, therefore it will happen' an example of flawed probabilistic reasoning?

    A high probability is not certainty; an outcome with probability less than 1 may still not occur, so concluding it 'will' happen overstates what the probability supports.

12. Define absolute risk and relative risk.

    Absolute risk is the actual probability of an event in a group (e.g. 2 in 1000). Relative risk compares the risk between two groups as a ratio (e.g. 'twice as likely'). Relative risk alone hides the underlying baseline (absolute) risk.

13. Why can a large relative risk increase still represent a small change in absolute risk?

    If the baseline (absolute) risk is tiny, even doubling it (a 100% relative increase) yields a small absolute change—e.g. from $1$ in $1{,}000{,}000$ to $2$ in $1{,}000{,}000$. Always interpret relative risk alongside the baseline.

14. How do you convert odds of 'a to b' into a probability?

    Odds of $a:b$ in favour give $$P = \frac{a}{a+b}$$ For example, odds of $3:1$ correspond to a probability of $\frac{3}{4}$.

15. When interpreting a risk statement, what details must you check to avoid being misled?

    Whether the figure is absolute or relative risk, the baseline/comparison group, the sample size, the time period, and whether correlation is being presented as causation.

16. In 'argument strength' questions, what is the task, and what assumption do you make about the premises?

    You judge how strong/weak each proposed argument is in relation to the question, assuming the information in each argument is true; you then select the strongest argument that directly and relevantly supports or opposes the claim.

17. What are the two essential features of a strong argument in Decision Making?

    It must be (1) relevant—directly addressing the question—and (2) significant/well-justified—providing a substantial, logical reason rather than a trivial, anecdotal, or off-topic point.

18. List common features that make an argument weak in Decision Making.

    Being irrelevant/off-topic, addressing only a minor part of the issue, relying on unsupported assertion or anecdote, appealing to emotion, or simply restating the question without giving a reason.

19. Define the 'appeal to popularity' (bandwagon) argument flaw.

    Claiming something is true, right, or best merely because many people believe or do it; popularity is not evidence of correctness.

20. Define the 'ad hominem' argument flaw.

    Attacking the person making an argument rather than addressing the argument itself; the character of the speaker is irrelevant to whether their claim is valid.

21. Explain the 'correlation implies causation' flaw.

    Wrongly assuming that because two things occur together or are associated, one must cause the other—ignoring coincidence, reverse causation, or a hidden third (confounding) variable.

22. What is a 'straw man' argument flaw?

    Misrepresenting or oversimplifying an opponent's position into a weaker version, then refuting that distorted version instead of the actual argument.

23. Describe the 'false dilemma' (false dichotomy) flaw and the 'slippery slope' flaw.

    False dilemma presents only two options when more exist, forcing an either/or choice. Slippery slope claims one small step will inevitably lead to a chain of extreme consequences without justifying the links.

24. When 'selecting the best argument', what process should you follow to choose among the options?

    Treat each option's content as true, eliminate arguments that are irrelevant or attack the wrong point, discard those based on flaws/unsupported assumptions, then pick the remaining option that is most directly relevant and most strongly justified with respect to the question.

What this deck covers

Decision Making flashcards FAQ